It’s Tuesday, which means it’s time to find us some home run bets once again. Scanning the board today for Dinger Tuesday*, there are two games we like quite a bit for homers. A mixture of positive weather and lineup advantages brings these spots to the forefront.
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees
We’re seeing a +30% projected increase in home runs in New York today, according to weather resource Ballpark Pal. These Yankee games seemingly have homers every night, so the hope now is that continues tonight. Both Jameson Taillon and Logan Gilbert have given up their fair share of long bombs this season, making us see real nice value in this entire game. As for the individual, call us boring, but the target is clear …
Aaron Judge (+172) — Judge is on an absolute tear. He’s hit a HR in 8 of his last 11 games, 10 total homers in that stretch. He matches up favorably with Gilbert tonight as well. 32 of Judge’s 43 homers have come against RHPs, and his ISO, XBH/PA and batting average are all higher when facing a righty on the mound. Gilbert has had his issues against right-handed batters. Ten of his 13 allowed HRs have come off the bats of righties, and RHBs averages and slugging percentages both rise when facing off against Gilbert. As chalky as this pick is, it’s the one for us today.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Our second targeted game is between the Royals and White Sox. It checks the first box of favorable weather, seeing a +15% projected boost to HRs. Both lineups also seem to offer promising opportunities against the day’s starters. Chicago is one of the 10 best hitting teams against RHP in the past 30 days, and Kansas City has its success against righties as well. We’re going to strong pitcher vs. batter history to power our second homer pick today.
Salvador Perez (+200) — In 25 plate appearances against Lucas Giolito since 2017, Salvador Perez is hitting .320 with 3 HRs. That is the highest homer rate against the day’s starters in this game, and Perez has nice recent success to bring this pick to the finish line. Perez has a homer in two straight games and five of his last nine. 79% of his homers this season come against RHP, and 72% of Giolito’s 18 HR allowed have been from right-handed batters. It adds up for us, so to Perez we go.
*Dinger Tuesday is a FanDuel promotion where if you bet $25 on a player to hit a HR, you receive $5 back for every homer hit in that game.
In other news …
San Diego Padres finalizing deal for star outfielder Juan Soto — We knew a trade was likely, and now we know where. 23-year-old star Juan Soto is being dealt from the Washington Nationals to the San Diego Padres. Many are considering this one of the biggest deals in baseball history, and the move has San Diego at +1100 to win the World Series, up from +2000 this morning.
MLB trade deadline today, players on the move — The trade deadline in MLB is today at 6 p.m. ET, and the Soto deal may be just the start of a busy day in baseball. San Diego made waves yesterday, trading for four-time All-Star closer Josh Hader. Milwaukee got a significant return on Hader, acquiring a handful of promising prospects and lefty closer Taylor Rogers. The Yankees added a pair of pitchers from Oakland in Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino, while the Astros and Braves swapped pitchers.
NFL training camps head into second week — The NFL season is getting closer and closer, and we’ve been working hard to find you some betting angles worth taking before the year kicks off on Sept. 8. Whether it’s MVP futures like Trey Lance at +4000 or fading the Dolphins and their 8.5 win total, there’s plenty to consider in the NFL market.
Jacob deGrom returns to the mound tonight — The long-awaited return of Mets ace Jacob deGrom is finally here, as the pitcher will make the start this evening against Washington. DeGrom’s strikeout prop total is at just 6.5, which is low due to the unknown of how long he’ll pitch or how effective he will be. Consider this a bargain worth exploring. DeGrom fanned 15 Washington batters when he last pitched against them (last April). In the 15 starts he made before getting injured in 2021, deGrom was over 6.5 Ks 12 times, averaging 9.7 per game. We’ll test the waters here and back a strong deGrom start.
Today’s Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll